As World investor not showing any type of confidence in economy. Every where it is a fear of recession and people think that world will go in recession again. This thinking just hurting the investor . Some where there is fear also which damaging whole things.
We have to go into history and see that always some bad time arrived and then we rose after that in year and so. So better keep invested and if we get some assets in relatively good price better start investing. This will revive in year and so.
In 2008 Recession came and market damage in 2008. But it got a huge rally from 2008 end to 2011 mid. Now Again some correction or sold out is going on. It will stay for a year and so but later market will revive and go up.
No body able to predict correct when to exit and when to enter. But better we may it a habit of keep invested at lower level and exit at upper level.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Gold will be the best assest in 2012
As per Jim Walker MD of Asianomics , there will be more bad news likely from EU in 2012. More Bumpy road for equity market in 2012.
As per him "I am not expecting EU banks to raise exposure to sovereigns. There is likely to be significant fiscal retrenchment in Euro zone."
In That case Gold always a first choice for the world and central bank. While it is for printing new money or investment in safe commodity.
As per him "I am not expecting EU banks to raise exposure to sovereigns. There is likely to be significant fiscal retrenchment in Euro zone."
In That case Gold always a first choice for the world and central bank. While it is for printing new money or investment in safe commodity.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Rupees and Gold Hitting Day by Day Low
Rupees almost hit low of 54.2 on 14th December against dollar. This is showing further weakness in Indian Economy. Export is weakened and Import cost become higher. This is not good sign of any developing country. In last one year India is paralysis in term of any reform or investment.
India should look for bigger investment like FDI in retails and other sector. RBI should also intervene here before rupees weak further.
There is great prediction that rupees may go up to 60/$.
On other side Gold is also cut down price in last one week. It falls near to 8% in one weak. As per expertise gold may go to 24,000 rupees per 10 gram . But it would be a good sign for equity market. It may bring a jerk in Indian and other world equity markets.
Let see what would be next keep on visiting this site.
India should look for bigger investment like FDI in retails and other sector. RBI should also intervene here before rupees weak further.
There is great prediction that rupees may go up to 60/$.
On other side Gold is also cut down price in last one week. It falls near to 8% in one weak. As per expertise gold may go to 24,000 rupees per 10 gram . But it would be a good sign for equity market. It may bring a jerk in Indian and other world equity markets.
Let see what would be next keep on visiting this site.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
EU Summit Message for World Market on 9th December 2011
Finally Europe is again prepared for Austerity plans also keep eye on fiscal deficit exceeds 3%. Also Europe Summit is planning to give additional 200 billion euros to the International Monetary Find (IMF) to lend to distressed European sovereigns.
Euro zone is also planning to have a kitty of 500 billion euro to save their distress banks.
As per IMF chief , Euro leaders also planning to have 3 point agenda.
No. 1 Consolidate the fiscal union
No. 2 Accelerate the European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
No. 3 Add to the resources of the IMF by an amount of USD 270 billion
All above steps definitely a good step in saving Euro zone for a while. But is it really enough to save completely. Then Answer is No. because Euro debt is so big that it will take several years to sort out and a big time for austerity plan.
Definitely equity market may take a swing for few percentage but let see how long it will hold.
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Even UN economists predict 2nd recession of global economy
The 2012 World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report, which complied by UN economists, said 2012 would be crucial in shaping the economic future.
They predict that developing nation may expand by 5.4 in 2012 and 5.8 in 2013.
High unemployment in development country adversely affecting growth and fiscal austerity plans to check high public debt.
Again 2012 is just a big danger to world economy for second recession in a row. How deep it would be or what would be parameter to handle that is still a big worry for work economy .Will it bring a end of capitalism thinking?
US Debt + Europe debt is so big that developing nation even can't help much .They having much bigger space in overall world economy.
One thing is sure if this second recession comes it will surely have huge impact on world equity market and real state market in developing countries.
So better ready for it , even if it is having 50-50% chance , better be invested in safe fund like FDs, Government bonds, gold , less exposure to equity and real state market.
They predict that developing nation may expand by 5.4 in 2012 and 5.8 in 2013.
High unemployment in development country adversely affecting growth and fiscal austerity plans to check high public debt.
Again 2012 is just a big danger to world economy for second recession in a row. How deep it would be or what would be parameter to handle that is still a big worry for work economy .Will it bring a end of capitalism thinking?
US Debt + Europe debt is so big that developing nation even can't help much .They having much bigger space in overall world economy.
One thing is sure if this second recession comes it will surely have huge impact on world equity market and real state market in developing countries.
So better ready for it , even if it is having 50-50% chance , better be invested in safe fund like FDs, Government bonds, gold , less exposure to equity and real state market.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
China Cuts Bank (RR) Reserve Requirements first time in last three years
China Reduce the bank keep the reserve cash aside since global slowdown may hurt china export and growth.
As per central bank ,Chinese banks’ reserve ratios will decline by 50 basis points effective Dec. 5.
This Step is taken by central bank before U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the monetary authorities of the U.K., Canada, Japan and Switzerland said they were cutting the cost of emergency dollar funding to ease strains in financial markets and free up funding.
This will improve foreign inflow in China.Revamp the China Foreign Exchange.This was just a impact of whole Asia Slowdown and China Contraction in real state and manufacture.
This China rate cut news may give a big push to global equity market. 3-5% rally in global market expected.
As per central bank ,Chinese banks’ reserve ratios will decline by 50 basis points effective Dec. 5.
This Step is taken by central bank before U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the monetary authorities of the U.K., Canada, Japan and Switzerland said they were cutting the cost of emergency dollar funding to ease strains in financial markets and free up funding.
This will improve foreign inflow in China.Revamp the China Foreign Exchange.This was just a impact of whole Asia Slowdown and China Contraction in real state and manufacture.
This China rate cut news may give a big push to global equity market. 3-5% rally in global market expected.
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Indian Economy Reform Policy on Table
Indian a Emerging economy suffering from high inflation ,black money ,liquidity problem. Fiscal Deficit is also as par.
In last 12 month rupees against dollar also depreciated by 30% around.
Now Government finally planning to put all economic reformation in table .Most Awaiting was FDI( Foreign Direct Investment) investment in retail, Companies Bill 2011.
The Bill have Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), class action suits and a fixed term for independent directors. It also proposes to tighten laws for raising money from the public.
The Bill prohibit any insider trading by company directors or key managerial personnel by treating such activities as a criminal offence. Further, it has proposed that companies should earmark 2% of the average profit of the preceding three years for CSR activities and make a disclosure to shareholders about the policy adopted in the process.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Is Dollar Strengthen show sign of recovery ?
So far it looks positive from GDP front , data taken from france and germany. Still Euro shown some support near to 1.35 and dollar support at 78.
Dollar is not only showing strength against Euro but also some emerging economy like India and China.
Indian rupess fallen to lowest at 51 against Dollar.
This may be a good sign for the time being as world may see some recovery but cant forget rear view.Investor still worry for future because they have in 2008 a recession.
Somewhere investor worry about debt issues and greece bail out.
Dollar is not only showing strength against Euro but also some emerging economy like India and China.
Indian rupess fallen to lowest at 51 against Dollar.
This may be a good sign for the time being as world may see some recovery but cant forget rear view.Investor still worry for future because they have in 2008 a recession.
Somewhere investor worry about debt issues and greece bail out.
Friday, November 4, 2011
G-20 Meeting 2011 Outcome
CANNES SUMMIT FINAL DECLARATION
“BUILDING OUR COMMON FUTURE: RENEWED COLLECTIVE ACTION FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL”
DRAFT (AS OF 4 TH NOV 2011)
1. Since our last meeting, global recovery has weakened, particularly in advanced countries,
leaving unemployment at unacceptable levels. Tensions in the financial markets have increased due mostly to sovereign risks in Europe. Signs of vulnerabilities are appearing in emerging markets. Increased commodity prices have harmed growth and hit the most vulnerable. Exchange rate volatility creates a risk to growth and financial stability. Global imbalances persist. Today, we reaffirm our commitment to work together and we have taken decisions to reinvigorate economic growth, create jobs, ensure financial stability, promote social inclusion and make globalization serve the needs of our people.
Key Points :
A global strategy for growth and jobs
Fostering Employment and Social Protection
Building a more stable and resilient International Monetary System
Implementing and deepening Financial sector reform
Addressing Food Price Volatility and Increasing Agriculture Production and
Productivity
Improving the functioning of Energy Market
Protecting Marine Environment
Fostering Clean energy, Green Growth and Sustainable Development
Pursuing the Fight against Climate Change
Avoiding protectionism and reinforcing the Multilateral Trading System
Development: Investing for Global Growth
Intensifying our Fight against Corruption
Governance
Download Complete Document :
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Know More about European Market Fact
Greece has been bankrupt for quite a while and already had defaulted about five times in the last hundred years.
There is a big hope that in G20 meeting on 3rd November will have some positive news to handle Europe debt crises .Investors are hoping that the upcoming meetings of euro zone leaders will clarify how the EFSF will be used to end the crisis .
We don't think it would enough to handle this debt crises. It required trillion of dollars to handle the whole issue.
Let see and wait what would happen.But as market roared in last 2 weeks it seems that market is over expecting and thing will be cool down as some negative news will alive.
There is a big hope that in G20 meeting on 3rd November will have some positive news to handle Europe debt crises .Investors are hoping that the upcoming meetings of euro zone leaders will clarify how the EFSF will be used to end the crisis .
We don't think it would enough to handle this debt crises. It required trillion of dollars to handle the whole issue.
Let see and wait what would happen.But as market roared in last 2 weeks it seems that market is over expecting and thing will be cool down as some negative news will alive.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Global Recovery look weaker again
After Recently IMF data that Europe have 300 billion Euros credit risk for European banks.
IMF warned US and Japan also to assure investor and raise capital on time. Also come up with some more stimulus measure in order to ramp up global recovery.
Emerging market are not even safe when global recovery slow down. The IMF analysis measured the size of spillover on banks from credit-related strains in the bond markets of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Belgium, Italy and Spain and used spreads on credit default swaps.
Battling the forces of global recession
Developing East Asia is battling the forces of global recession. The impact of the crisis in the advanced countries was transmitted to the economies of the region with unusual speed. In the region, the initial global financial turbulence was marked by sudden reversals of capital flows in the middle-income economies, rapidly declining equity market prices, a sharp increase in the price of external private capital, a shortage of dollar liquidity, and in some cases, a depreciating currency. Now with aggregate global demand falling precipitously, region-wide declines in exports and industrial production are triggering widespread factory closures, rising unemployment, and lower real wages, with disproportionate effects on the poor and near-poor. Authorities in many countries are implementing social programs and cash transfers to assist those most in need. Where possible, policymakers have responded quickly with expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, including fiscal stimulus packages, although in most cases these measures will only mitigate, not overcome, the contractionary forces operating on their economies.
There are signs that the strongest economy in the region, China, is beginning to turn the corner. If it does so, what would be the implications for the rest of East Asia and the Pacific? A return to stronger economic expansion in China next year should help support growth among the countries of the East Asia and Pacific region, but a sustainable recovery will ultimately depend on developments in the advanced economies. Among developing regions, East Asia is best positioned to benefit from resumption in global growth, given its relatively open trade regimes, its infrastructure, and its strong and competitive production networks. Even so, the region’s outward oriented economies are unlikely to enjoy the same success in the medium term as they did in the previous decade, in large part because the pressure to increase savings in East Asia’s key export markets is likely to constrain their growth over the medium term. In addition, the risks to the outlook are weighted heavily on the downside. Continued banking problems or even new waves of tension in financial markets could lead to stagnation in global GDP or another year of declining GDP.
The implications for East Asia would be increased pressure on labor markets and the fiscal accounts, and further deterioration in the portfolios of banks.
PDF from World bank
Friday, September 16, 2011
The Role of Financial Markets
To what extent can these facts be explained by developments in global financial markets? As noted above, there are few places where the impact of new information and communications technologies has been more pronounced than in the financial sphere.
Their impact, combined with that of the relaxation of regulatory restrictions on foreign financial investment, has been profound. Falling transactions and information costs have led to a reduction in home bias and to an increasing volume of two-way capital flows.
The results are evident in a rise since 1990 in the share of residents holdings of foreign bonds and equity relative to domestic bonds and equity in countries like Canada, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom.
It is important to recognize the relatively recent vintage of this phenomenon.While the securitization of financial claims has been underway since at least the 1970s,most extensively in the United States, the relaxation and removal of capital controls isrelatively recent. In the advanced-industrial countries other than the United States, it dates only from the 1980s. In emerging markets the trend is more recent still (Eichengreen and Mussa et al. 1998).
Be this as it may, the effects are undeniable. One consequence has been that theshare of portfolios devoted to foreign financial assets has risen in both advanced countries and emerging markets. Two corollaries of the increased willingness of foreigners to adjust their portfolio shares in response to changes in expected rates of return are that the size of current account balances has risen on average and that their dispersion across countries has widened. On both counts, then, external deficits have become easier to finance. While the evidence of increased dispersion of current account balances is less pronounced in emerging markets than in the advanced countries, recent replications of the analysis in Feldstein and Horioka (1980) suggest that even in the developing world the trend has been in the same direction. But increased capital mobility can be a mixed blessing. In the present context one can imagine how the decline of obstacles to capital flows and the greater elasticity of external finance with respect to changes in rate of return differentials can moderate the pressure for countries to address current account and fiscal imbalances. The United States has been able to finance its twin deficits more cheaply, limiting the pressure to adjust. This phenomenon, known as the Greenspan Conundrum, is plausibly attributable to the influence of capital inflows.25 As a result of the single market and the euro, there has been an increase in capital mobility among European countries (Blanchard and Giavazzi 2002), to which the big ones have responded by relaxing budgetary discipline. Developing countries enjoyed a sharp compression of bond spreads in the first half of the decade, and in response to this increase in investor demand for their debt securities they
allowed their public debt ratios to rise further.
Financial innovation has also figured in the substitution of the bond market for syndicated bank loans as the mechanism through which emerging markets can meet their international financial needs. Bonds, recent experience suggests, have superior risksharing characteristics. For lenders, it is easier to build and manage diversified asset portfolios and easier to close out positions, assuming of course that there exists a liquid secondary market. For borrowers, bonds have the advantage of longer maturity. These favorable risk-sharing characteristics are further enhanced by efforts to provide for contingencies in the design of bond covenants, for example by including collective action clauses and trustee provisions to facilitate negotiation in the event that there is the need for restructuring, and by indexing returns to the rate of growth (as in the case of
Argentinas GDP warrants) so that both lenders and borrowers share the fruits of policy
reform.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
The Future of Global Financial Markets-Introduction
Forecasting is always difficult, especially when it involves the future. More than the usual degree of difficulty is involved when the task is forecasting the future of global financial markets. In the mid-1970s, when Ernesto Zedillo, the editor of this volume,and I were in graduate school at Yale, global financial markets and private capital flows to developing countries were just beginning to awaken from a long period of somnolence.
Those who anticipated that World Bank loans and official development assistance would remain the predominant sources of external finance for developing countries were surprised by the rapid growth of bank lending to Latin America and Eastern Europe by money-center banks recycling the surpluses of oil exporters and selected industrial economies. But no sooner had observers assimilated these facts than lending to emerging markets collapsed in 1982 in response to rising interest rates in the U.S. and UK and debt crises in the developing world. The result was the lost decade of the 1980s, when resources flowed upstream from developing to developed economies and growth stagnated in Latin America. The inability of governments to credibly commit to repay their borrowings, it was argued, constituted a fundamental obstacle to sovereign lending to emerging markets, and efforts by the International Monetary Fund to paper over the cracks were dismissed as creating more problems than they solved.
But no sooner had observers accustomed themselves to this brave new world than nonperforming bank loans were converted into bearer bonds. The Brady Plan jump-started the market in fixed income securities, which quickly became the vehicle for renewed lending to emerging markets.
Bond markets transferred an impressive quantity of resources to developing countries in the course of the 1990s, but the decade was also punctuated by a series of emerging-market crises that repeatedly interrupted the flow of finance, sent spreads skyrocketing, and prompted emergency intervention by the IMF. This period drew to a close with ArgentinaÃs default at the end of 2001. Borrowers and lenders drew back from the market as if they had finally taken the lessons of the 1990s to heart. Developing countries shifted from external deficit to surplus, accumulating unprecedented quantities of international reserves. They repaid external debt to their private creditors and the IMF.
By early 2006 no major Latin American or Asian country was in debt to the IMF, and
virtually the entire stock of Brady bonds had been retired from the market.
The United States emerged as the worldÃs principal deficit country and capital importer, absorbing some two-thirds of the net savings of the rest of the world. But the idea, which gained
currency following the Argentine crisis, that international investors had learned that the returns from lending to emerging markets did not justify the risks was again dissolved by the subsequent resurgence of flows into local markets and the decline in emerging market spreads to unprecedented lows (below 200 basis points in the spring of 2006).
If one thing is sure, it is that the future will bring more surprises. Any effort to forecast by mechanically projecting recent events is certain to be wrong. This uncertainty creates a dilemma for an author whose assigned topic is the future of global financial markets.
Monday, August 22, 2011
About FTSE 100 INDEX
The FTSE 100 is a market-capitalisation weighted index representing the performance of the 100 largest UK-domiciled blue chip companies, which pass screening for size and liquidity. The index represents approximately 84.35% of the UK’s market capitalisation and is suitable as the basis for investment products, such as funds, derivatives and exchange-traded funds. The FTSE 100 Index also accounts for 8.02% of the world’s equity market capitalisation (based on the FTSE All-World Index as at 30 June 2011).
FTSE 100 constituents are all traded on the London Stock Exchange’s SETS trading system.
The indices are managed according to a transparent and public set of index rules,
and overseen by an independent committee of leading market professionals. The
committee ensures that the rules are correctly applied and adhered to. Regular
index reviews are conducted to ensure that a continuous and accurate representation
of the market is maintained.
FTSE 100 constituents are all traded on the London Stock Exchange’s SETS trading system.
The indices are managed according to a transparent and public set of index rules,
and overseen by an independent committee of leading market professionals. The
committee ensures that the rules are correctly applied and adhered to. Regular
index reviews are conducted to ensure that a continuous and accurate representation
of the market is maintained.
About the Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index of 30 blue-chip U.S.
companies representing nine economic sectors including financial service, technology,
retail, entertainment and consumer goods. The leadership position of the component
stocks in the DJIA tends to result in an extremely high correlation of the DJIA to broader
U.S. indexes, such as the S&P 500 Index providing additional opportunities.
companies representing nine economic sectors including financial service, technology,
retail, entertainment and consumer goods. The leadership position of the component
stocks in the DJIA tends to result in an extremely high correlation of the DJIA to broader
U.S. indexes, such as the S&P 500 Index providing additional opportunities.
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Disclaimer of Liveworldmarket blog
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MODELING THE JOINT DYNAMICS OF COUNTRY AND WORLD VOLATILITY
The univariate models we employed above do not allow for time-varying
conditional covariance between the country and world returns. If the
conditional covariance changes systematically with the introduction of
stock index futures, then our previous results may be biased.
In this section, we will address this problem by estimating the joint
dynamics of each country’s return with the world-market return in a multivariate
GARCH framework that allows for time-varying conditional covariance.
Because we wished to capture the dynamic interaction between
world-market volatility, country-specific volatility, and conditional covariance,
we used the BEKK specification of Engle and Kroner (1995).9
Unlike certain other well-known multivariate GARCH models, the BEKK
model allows conditional variances and covariances to influence each
other.
conditional covariance between the country and world returns. If the
conditional covariance changes systematically with the introduction of
stock index futures, then our previous results may be biased.
In this section, we will address this problem by estimating the joint
dynamics of each country’s return with the world-market return in a multivariate
GARCH framework that allows for time-varying conditional covariance.
Because we wished to capture the dynamic interaction between
world-market volatility, country-specific volatility, and conditional covariance,
we used the BEKK specification of Engle and Kroner (1995).9
Unlike certain other well-known multivariate GARCH models, the BEKK
model allows conditional variances and covariances to influence each
other.
THE EFFECT OF FUTURES TRADING ACTIVITY
In the previous section, we tested whether there appears to be any structural
change in the underlying market at the time of futures introduction.
In this section, we will test whether there appears to be a relationship,
after the futures have been listed, between the level of future trading activity
and the volatility of the underlying index.
Our approach is based on that of Bessembinder and Seguin (1992).
Using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, they
decomposed the time series of futures trading volume and open interest
into expected and unexpected components. Bursts of trading activity
stimulated by unexpected price changes should be picked up in the unexpected
component, while the expected component should reflect the
“background” level of futures trading. They found that market volatility
was positively related to the unexpected components of volume and open
interest, reflecting the positive effect of volatility on volume, but that
market volatility was negatively related to the expected component, suggesting
an underlying stabilizing influence.
We followed a similar procedure using futures market trading volume
and open-interest data from 17 of our 25 countries for which volume and
open interest data were available. First, we analyzed the volume and openinterest
time series from each country to select an ARIMA model that
appeared to fit the data reasonably well. Restricting our attention to models
with five or less autoregressive lags and five or less moving average
lags, we selected, on the basis of the autocorrelation structure, a different
model for each time series.
change in the underlying market at the time of futures introduction.
In this section, we will test whether there appears to be a relationship,
after the futures have been listed, between the level of future trading activity
and the volatility of the underlying index.
Our approach is based on that of Bessembinder and Seguin (1992).
Using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, they
decomposed the time series of futures trading volume and open interest
into expected and unexpected components. Bursts of trading activity
stimulated by unexpected price changes should be picked up in the unexpected
component, while the expected component should reflect the
“background” level of futures trading. They found that market volatility
was positively related to the unexpected components of volume and open
interest, reflecting the positive effect of volatility on volume, but that
market volatility was negatively related to the expected component, suggesting
an underlying stabilizing influence.
We followed a similar procedure using futures market trading volume
and open-interest data from 17 of our 25 countries for which volume and
open interest data were available. First, we analyzed the volume and openinterest
time series from each country to select an ARIMA model that
appeared to fit the data reasonably well. Restricting our attention to models
with five or less autoregressive lags and five or less moving average
lags, we selected, on the basis of the autocorrelation structure, a different
model for each time series.
VOLATILITY EFFECTS OF FUTURES LISTING
Empirical Framework for Univariate Modeling
We begin our analysis by modeling the time series of excess country returns
net of the world-market portfolio as a univariate GARCH process.
Australia 2 January 1980–31 December 1997 779 3572
Austria 20 November 1987–31 December 1997 1162 1334
Belgium 2 January 1990–31 December 1997 941 1037
Canada 2 January 1973–31 December 1997 2740 3516
Chile 2 January 1987–31 December 1997 879 1741
Denmark 10 December 1979–31 December 1997 2476 2037
Finland 2 January 1987–31 December 1997 333 2424
France 9 July 1987–31 December 1997 330 2270
Germany 21 November 1977–31 December 1997 3215 1771
Japan 4 January 1980–31 December 1997 2098 2298
Hong Kong 2 January 1973–31 December 1997 3263 2888
Hungary 2 January 1991–31 December 1997 1056 674
Israel 2 January 1992–31 December 1997 928 527
Italy 2 January 1973–31 December 1997 5507 780
Korea 3 January 1990–31 December 1997 1540 398
Malaysia 2 January 1980–31 December 1997 3902 508
Netherlands 3 January 1983–31 December 1997 1402 2313
Norway 3 January 1983–31 December 1997 2418 1333
Portugal 1 January 1993–31 December 1997 853 376
South Africa 10 April 1985–31 December 1997 1136 1891
Spain 6 January 1987–31 December 1997 1238 1501
Sweden 2 January 1986–31 December 1997 311 2694
Switzerland 1 July 1988–31 December 1997 590 1792
United Kingdom 2 January 1973–31 December 1997 2871 3485
United States 2 January 1973–31 December 1997 2340 3967
This framework is parsimonious, which allowed us to capture many of
the salient features of the data, and to partially account for movements
in the world market in a model with relatively few parameters. Later, we
would estimate a multivariate GARCH model that would allow us a richer
model of the joint dynamics of country-specific and world-market returns.
Following Pagan and Schwert (1990) and Engle and Ng (1993), the
first step in our univariate GARCH analysis was to remove from the time
series any predictability associated with lagged returns or day-of-the-week
effects. For each country, the following regression was estimated:
where Rt is the daily return on the country’s stock index and RWt is the
daily return on the World Market Index on day t, RWt1 is the lagged return on the World Market Index, and DAYj are day-of-the-week dummies
for Tuesday through Friday.
We used the excess return relative to the World Market Index as our
dependent variable and the lagged World Market Index return as an independent
variable in an effort to remove the effect of worldwide price
movements on volatility.6 It should be noted that because of differences
in time zones, different markets line up differently with the world-market
return. This makes it difficult to compare directly the coefficients of the
first-stage regression. For example, if the U.S. market is influenced by
Asian markets, this will be reflected through the contemporaneous market
return on the left-hand side of the regression equation. On the other
hand, if the Asian markets are influenced by the US, this will be reflected
through the lagged market portfolio.
We begin our analysis by modeling the time series of excess country returns
net of the world-market portfolio as a univariate GARCH process.
Australia 2 January 1980–31 December 1997 779 3572
Austria 20 November 1987–31 December 1997 1162 1334
Belgium 2 January 1990–31 December 1997 941 1037
Canada 2 January 1973–31 December 1997 2740 3516
Chile 2 January 1987–31 December 1997 879 1741
Denmark 10 December 1979–31 December 1997 2476 2037
Finland 2 January 1987–31 December 1997 333 2424
France 9 July 1987–31 December 1997 330 2270
Germany 21 November 1977–31 December 1997 3215 1771
Japan 4 January 1980–31 December 1997 2098 2298
Hong Kong 2 January 1973–31 December 1997 3263 2888
Hungary 2 January 1991–31 December 1997 1056 674
Israel 2 January 1992–31 December 1997 928 527
Italy 2 January 1973–31 December 1997 5507 780
Korea 3 January 1990–31 December 1997 1540 398
Malaysia 2 January 1980–31 December 1997 3902 508
Netherlands 3 January 1983–31 December 1997 1402 2313
Norway 3 January 1983–31 December 1997 2418 1333
Portugal 1 January 1993–31 December 1997 853 376
South Africa 10 April 1985–31 December 1997 1136 1891
Spain 6 January 1987–31 December 1997 1238 1501
Sweden 2 January 1986–31 December 1997 311 2694
Switzerland 1 July 1988–31 December 1997 590 1792
United Kingdom 2 January 1973–31 December 1997 2871 3485
United States 2 January 1973–31 December 1997 2340 3967
This framework is parsimonious, which allowed us to capture many of
the salient features of the data, and to partially account for movements
in the world market in a model with relatively few parameters. Later, we
would estimate a multivariate GARCH model that would allow us a richer
model of the joint dynamics of country-specific and world-market returns.
Following Pagan and Schwert (1990) and Engle and Ng (1993), the
first step in our univariate GARCH analysis was to remove from the time
series any predictability associated with lagged returns or day-of-the-week
effects. For each country, the following regression was estimated:
where Rt is the daily return on the country’s stock index and RWt is the
daily return on the World Market Index on day t, RWt1 is the lagged return on the World Market Index, and DAYj are day-of-the-week dummies
for Tuesday through Friday.
We used the excess return relative to the World Market Index as our
dependent variable and the lagged World Market Index return as an independent
variable in an effort to remove the effect of worldwide price
movements on volatility.6 It should be noted that because of differences
in time zones, different markets line up differently with the world-market
return. This makes it difficult to compare directly the coefficients of the
first-stage regression. For example, if the U.S. market is influenced by
Asian markets, this will be reflected through the contemporaneous market
return on the left-hand side of the regression equation. On the other
hand, if the Asian markets are influenced by the US, this will be reflected
through the lagged market portfolio.
Launch Dates for Index Futures Contracts
Launch Dates for Index Futures Contracts
Country Underlying Index Launch Date
United States Value Line 24 February 1982
S&P 500 21 April 1982
Australia All Ordinaries 16 February 1983
United Kingdom FT-SE 100 3 May 1984
Canada TSE 300 16 January 1984
Brazil BOVESPA 14 February 1986
Hong Kong Hang Seng 6 May 1986
Japan (SIMEX) Nikkei 225 3 September 1986
(Osaka) OSE 50 9 June 1987
(Osaka) Nikkei 225 3 September 1988
(Tokyo) Topix 3 September 1988
New Zealand Barclay Share January 1987
Sweden OMX 3 April 1987
Finland FOX 2 May 1988
Netherlands AEX 24 October 1988
France CAC 40 9 November 1988
Denmark KFX 7 December 1989
South Africa All Share 30 April 1990
Switzerland SMI 9 November 1990
Germany DAX 23 November 1990
Chile IPSA December 1990
Spain IBEX 35 14 January 1992
Austria ATX 7 August 1992
Norway OBX 4 September 1992
Belgium BEL 20 29 October 1993
Italy MIB 30 28 November 1994
Hungary BSI 31 March 1995
Israel Maof 25 27 October 1995
Malaysia KLCI 15 December 1995
Korea KOSPI 200 3 May 1996
Portugal PSI-20 20 June 1996
Russia RTS March 1997
Venezuela IBC 5 September 1997
Poland WIG20 16 January 1998
Greece FTSE/ASE-20 27 August 1999
Country Underlying Index Launch Date
United States Value Line 24 February 1982
S&P 500 21 April 1982
Australia All Ordinaries 16 February 1983
United Kingdom FT-SE 100 3 May 1984
Canada TSE 300 16 January 1984
Brazil BOVESPA 14 February 1986
Hong Kong Hang Seng 6 May 1986
Japan (SIMEX) Nikkei 225 3 September 1986
(Osaka) OSE 50 9 June 1987
(Osaka) Nikkei 225 3 September 1988
(Tokyo) Topix 3 September 1988
New Zealand Barclay Share January 1987
Sweden OMX 3 April 1987
Finland FOX 2 May 1988
Netherlands AEX 24 October 1988
France CAC 40 9 November 1988
Denmark KFX 7 December 1989
South Africa All Share 30 April 1990
Switzerland SMI 9 November 1990
Germany DAX 23 November 1990
Chile IPSA December 1990
Spain IBEX 35 14 January 1992
Austria ATX 7 August 1992
Norway OBX 4 September 1992
Belgium BEL 20 29 October 1993
Italy MIB 30 28 November 1994
Hungary BSI 31 March 1995
Israel Maof 25 27 October 1995
Malaysia KLCI 15 December 1995
Korea KOSPI 200 3 May 1996
Portugal PSI-20 20 June 1996
Russia RTS March 1997
Venezuela IBC 5 September 1997
Poland WIG20 16 January 1998
Greece FTSE/ASE-20 27 August 1999
Introduction to World Market Future
The world’s first stock index futures contract was the Value Line contract,
introduced by the Kansas City Board of Trade on February 24, 1982.
Today, stock index futures and options trade in markets all over the world,
with new contracts launched nearly every year. Table 1 reports launch
dates for thirty nations that introduced stock index futures between 1982
and January, 1998. In addition, plans are underway for exchange-listed
index futures in many other nations, including India, Indonesia, Czech
Republic, Slovakia, Turkey, and others.
As exchange-traded stock index futures and other derivatives become
more pervasive in the world’s financial markets, it is increasingly important
to understand the effect of derivatives trading on the underlying
markets. The previous literature on the effects of stock index futures
trading has focused primarily on developed markets, and it is unclear to
what extent these results are applicable to less-developed markets. Moreover,
the existing research has come to conflicting conclusions regarding
the effect of futures trading on volatility. While some authors have found
that volatility appears to increase with the introduction of futures, others
have found no significant effect, and still others have found that volatility
decreases.1
In this site, we examine the time series properties of stock indexes
in twenty-five countries in order to investigate the impact of stock index
futures listing and subsequent trading activity on the volatility structure
of the underlying cash market.We examined this issue in two ways. First,
we tested for structural changes at the time of futures listing by comparing
properties of the returns series before and after listing. Second, we
tested whether volatility in the post-listing period is related to futures
market volume and open interest. The results of both tests showed that
futures trading is associated with increased volatility in the United States
and Japan, but this was not the case in virtually every one of the other
twenty-three countries. In some countries, there is no robust, significant
effect, and in many others, futures trading is associated with lower
volatility.
pointed out by Hodges (1992), Mayhew (1999), and others, most of these
theories predicted that volatility can increase or decrease with the introduction
of futures depending on the underlying assumptions, or depending
on the parameter values used in the models. Due to the large number
of competing theoretical models with overlapping and ambiguous predictions,
we are reluctant to interpret our results as favoring any particular
model. Perhaps futures markets influence cash markets through multiple,
offsetting channels. Perhaps futures play a more-important stabilizing
role in markets that lack alternative stabilization mechanisms.
introduced by the Kansas City Board of Trade on February 24, 1982.
Today, stock index futures and options trade in markets all over the world,
with new contracts launched nearly every year. Table 1 reports launch
dates for thirty nations that introduced stock index futures between 1982
and January, 1998. In addition, plans are underway for exchange-listed
index futures in many other nations, including India, Indonesia, Czech
Republic, Slovakia, Turkey, and others.
As exchange-traded stock index futures and other derivatives become
more pervasive in the world’s financial markets, it is increasingly important
to understand the effect of derivatives trading on the underlying
markets. The previous literature on the effects of stock index futures
trading has focused primarily on developed markets, and it is unclear to
what extent these results are applicable to less-developed markets. Moreover,
the existing research has come to conflicting conclusions regarding
the effect of futures trading on volatility. While some authors have found
that volatility appears to increase with the introduction of futures, others
have found no significant effect, and still others have found that volatility
decreases.1
In this site, we examine the time series properties of stock indexes
in twenty-five countries in order to investigate the impact of stock index
futures listing and subsequent trading activity on the volatility structure
of the underlying cash market.We examined this issue in two ways. First,
we tested for structural changes at the time of futures listing by comparing
properties of the returns series before and after listing. Second, we
tested whether volatility in the post-listing period is related to futures
market volume and open interest. The results of both tests showed that
futures trading is associated with increased volatility in the United States
and Japan, but this was not the case in virtually every one of the other
twenty-three countries. In some countries, there is no robust, significant
effect, and in many others, futures trading is associated with lower
volatility.
pointed out by Hodges (1992), Mayhew (1999), and others, most of these
theories predicted that volatility can increase or decrease with the introduction
of futures depending on the underlying assumptions, or depending
on the parameter values used in the models. Due to the large number
of competing theoretical models with overlapping and ambiguous predictions,
we are reluctant to interpret our results as favoring any particular
model. Perhaps futures markets influence cash markets through multiple,
offsetting channels. Perhaps futures play a more-important stabilizing
role in markets that lack alternative stabilization mechanisms.
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Tuesday 6th December 2011 Moharum
Wednesday 2nd March, 2011 Mahashivratri
Tuesday 12th April, 2011 Ram Navmi
Thursday 14th April, 2011 Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Jayanti
Friday 22nd April, 2011 Good Friday
Monday 15th August, 2011 Independence Day
Wednesday 31st August, 2011 Ramzan Id
Thursday 1st September, 2011 Shri Ganesh Chaturthi
Thursday 6th October, 2011 Dassera
Wednesday 26th October, 2011 Diwali Amavasya (Laxmi Pujan)
Thursday 27th October, 2011 Diwali Balipratipada
Monday 7th November 2011 Bakri-Id
Thursday 10th November, 2011 Gurunanak Jayanti
Tuesday 6th December 2011 Moharum
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